Tag Archives: speculative fiction

Creating alternative 2014 election.

Alternative history also known as speculative fiction is taking actual events and coming up with a different outcome.  A what if syinerio. Popular one are what if america lost the revolutionary war or what if the south won the cival war. Other syinerios are what if the south won the battle of getysburg or what if normandy invasion failed? Elections are interesting esprcialy congressional.  

The 2014 election was a major event in modern u.s history. It was the last election of the berak obama presidentcy. It was the first election sence the 2013 government shitdown and the 2012 sequester.  There was the rise of isis and an ebola oitbreak and fear. The tea party was heading into its third election. The establishment in the republican party had tried to reassert itself and had succeeded.  

In the real world the republicans gained nine seats. There was three more then they needed to take power. The republican did not lose a single seat. They held on to open seats.  The denocrats only got one new member. That of gary peaters who replaced longtime senator Carl levin of Michigan.  Mitch mconel servived a primary and general election challenge.  Pat roberts of kanas who seemed to be vanerable ended up not being in jeopardy.  Republican kept control of Georgia.  

In alternative history election results are tricky. It is irational to flip every results.  It is unlikly for democrat neils mitchel to upset jim risch in idaho. Probably cam cavaso was not going to win in hawaie. It is best to find probible divation in results. 

Some are very easy to alter.  The easiest is in alasca. In the real time line, dan sulivan beat mqrk begitch 48 to 45. It took recounts begore begitch conceded.  It is quite reasonable that behitch could have won. It would mostlikly be close. Without altering other events begitch wining is concevible. A land slide would not unless Obama had been popular,won Alaska in 12 or mit romney won and was unpopular. I perfer to stick closer to the real events. 

Another easy race to alter is north caeolina. Tom tilis beat kay hegen 48 to 47. Her wining by the same margin is quite conceivable.  Tilis was speaker of the sate house. Even though nc was a purple satw that slightly leened gop, the house acted like it was a deep red sate. Tilis won a close primary chalenge by dr. Grieg branon. Tilis was establishment anf disliked by tea party and glen beck who for the most part endorsed brenon. Had brenon won might have changed the race.  I am keeping things bascaly the same for this template. 

Although Arkansas was real close,mark pryor could have beat tom cotten. Cotten was an architect of the 2013 shutdown along witg ted cruz and mike lee. Arkansas is the hone of bill Clinton and once a democratic stronhold.  In 2008 pryor won unopposed even as arkanas was the bigest win for john mccain. 

It is not hard to imagine mark udal holding on to his srat against Gardner.  In my post i put udal against ken buck. In the real time line the gop holding to stop buck from runing recruted gardner. Buck ran for gardners house seat. Buck ran unsuccessfuly against Michael bannet in 2010. 

While mitch mconel loss to allison lundegrin grimes is possible.  While the sate goes republican in presidential elections, democrats do well in sate wide races. Although mconel pulled though well,it could have gone the orther way. 

Kanas is an interesting one.  Orignally it was a theee eay race between roberts fred duvaul and independent grieg orman. Duval droped out. Orman was the opposition candidate. Orman lost. There are a milion places you could take this. I chose to keep the situation the same up until the results. Moatlikly he would side with the democrats. One canot be totaly sure. 

Montana was a bit of a odd series of occurrences. Long time democratic senator conrad burns accrpted a post ad ambassador to china. There was talk of x governor bryan switzer challenging him. Burns took the job probably conident that it would stay in democratic hands. Swizler decided not to run. Lt governor john walsh was appointed to the seat.  Walsh was implicated in a plagerism scandle. Republican congresman Steve danes ran. The denocrats picked amanda carpenter.

Danes won with little dificulty. I decided to keep burns in the race.instead of danes i picked denny rheburg as a kind of sacrificial canidate. There are manny angles you could persue. 

In gerogia saxby chamblis decided not to run. Multiple republicans ran. Into the end david perdue got the nod. He run with 50 percent of the vote avoiding a runoff with michelle nun daughter of x senator sam nun. I had Michele nun wining with filthy percent of the vote. This seams the most likly alternate to the real time line.  

There are mutiple others. Nun and perdue go to runoff.  Nun and another runing.  Her in a runoff with someone else etc. One i find interesting but did not explore was what if the losiana runoff produced a 51-50 split then nun won georgia ruboff. That would create a 50-50 split .joe biden would break the tie and democrats would rule the senate.  

Loisiana is another intetesting race. In the real race, mary landru was forced into a runof with bill casidy. Casidy won. I chose to keep close to the real events. I had landru win the runoff. 

One could go in orther directions. Lundru could have got 51 percent. She could have faced rob mandes. Mandes was tea party guy but had little suport in lousiana or with republican establishment. 

Iowa could have gone difetently. Senator tom harken could have stayed in the race.  Bruce braily could have won. He was viwed as a favorite until high profile gaffs. In a wave election ernst though impressive would have faced a tough road. Ernst might not have gotten the nomination. 

In the south Carolina special election,tim scot easily won. Had jim demint not left the senate there would be no special election. Had the democrats mounted a serious opisition it could have gone differently. In a wave election, if denocrat vincent sheheen had won the governors race, a canidate could have riden on his coatales. I chose to leave this race as it was in the real timeline. 

Texas,i left the same. I could have had steve stockman beating cornine but i did not. I decided not to have the democrats mount a serious chalenge to him. If wendy davis beat abot in the governors race, there could have been a coat tale. 

Tenisee was a ho hum race in the real universe. Lamer alexander easily won a third term. I saw no reason to alter it. 

In va, mark warnet eaked out a win against ed gilaspe. In this tine line i had Warner win another landslide.  I considered having someone other then gilaspe but decided to keep it as is. I could have had gilaspe win but in a dem wave year it made little sense that blue va would go red. 

In west va ,jay Rockefeller decided not to run. He did it almost imidietly after the 2012 election. This gave republican shelly more capitato time to prepare. The dems chose netali tennet. This could have been competitive but was not reallt. 

Given that west va is a denocratic machine sate ,she could have won.i decided to have tennet win. 

Wyoming,  mike enzi beat liz chaney for the nomination then went on to win the election. I could have chaney won. I decided not to. I decided to keep it as is. 

In a paralel sitution,the results would be fliped. In Minnesota having all franken lose to mike mcfeddon in a dem year made no sense. Having tom udal lose im new hanpshire in my universe made little sense. I considered an upset in oregon. Have monica whitby win in oregon. It seemed ilogical for whitby to win. 

I am not totaly happy with my decision to have scot brown beat shaheen. I kind of wanted to have one surprise. Mayby if someone else chalenged shaheen i might be more happy. 

South decota was a fascinating race. It was an open seat. Former governor mike rounds apeared to be a shoe in to replace democrat tim jonson. Then lary presser steped in as an independent.  Rick weylan a throw away canidate got traction. In my template,  rick wrhland pullef off a victory.  I could have had presser win. Presler said he would join the democrats if elected. 

Oklihoma special election i kept the same. Had coburn not decided to quit there would be no race. I decided not to change it. Had dan borren or x gov brad henry ran it might have turned diffferently. That is too speculative for me. 

I realy think Nebraska  could have gone difetently.  In the real time line ben suess got 60 percent or so. If the democrats were having a good year. Nebraska could have been in play. Sues was a problimetic canidate. Sues could have lost to shane osborn. Osborn could have facef domina. I think that is a resonable flip in an alternative time line. 

I believe jef seasons would win in probly other alternative time line. I just dont see him losing. Jim risch is another one i just dont see losing in 2014.  Chris coons,cory booker, ed marky are senators that i just dont see losing. 

Alternative or specutive history is not an exact science. We are speculating.  This is a guess. There is no way to test these theories.  I dont have acess to a timet from sliders. I love alternative history. It is fun to engage in this kind of speculation.  At least i find it fun. 

Pm bush part two

“Making of a prime minister”
After wining the leadership of the conservitive party,bush quickly resigned as premer of texas and went to philidalfia. He had to govern behind the veil sense he was no t an m.p.
On his first day he met with the tory cauckus,had a private meating with outgoing leader jack kept and even met with the prime minister.
Bush hired some well conected people to his staff. Karl rove became his chief stratigest. Rove was a key party insider. Rove would be come to known as bush’s brain and the architect.
Karen hughs who worked with him in the premeres office came with him to philly.  He also chose condaliza rice who had worked on national security isues for hia farther as his foregn policy advisor.
Once he was elected to the house,he took his seat and go to work. Many comented that he looked like a prime minister.
Bill Clinton continued to push for programs that invested in education and other programs.bush critisized these programs as being too coastly and prone to missmanagement. He was careful with his tone. He did want to be seen as anti education or anti the little guy.
In the sumer of 1998,terrorist linked to saudi born osama binladen attacked american embisies in kenya and Tanzania. In response,pm Clinton ordered targets in athgamistan and suden be hit. Inteligence said these were command and control facilities for the terorist group. As it terns out,one was an asprin factory.
In a heated exchange during prime minister’s questiones,bush acused Clinton of not having a clue when it comes to tatics. Clinton responded by saying “last time he checked,the new york mets did blow themselves up at sporting events”
In November of 1998, iraq kicked out weapons inspectors,they aslo tried to defy the no fly zone imposed on them after the gulf war in 1991. Great briten asked america to paticipate in bombing strikes on iraq. Clinton incisted this was not a war and did not ask for any vote in parliament. Bush was critical of this move. Bush said there should be a decleration of war.
The bombing was just a responce. There were no lasting consqiqances. Bush said that sadom hausien had to go. There was speculation that a prime minister bush would deal with sadom hauisein different then pm Clinton or even his farther.
While being leader of the opposition,bush comisoned a study on “fesibility of regime change in iraq” the author of that study was former minister of national defense dick chaney.
In spring of 1999,the congress of viena decided to deal with the situation in the balkens. After the colapse of the rusan empire,Yugoslavia split into several contries.  Serbian president slobidon Milosevic was acused of war crimes in the breakaway republic of Kosovo.
The congress of viena voted to send trops to Kosovo to protect the ethnic Albanians. As a member sate,america was asked to paticipate. Instead of a decleration of war,pm Clinton asked for parliamentry permission to send trops and orther forces.
Opposition leader bush was sceptical of the operation. He was opposed to the concept of nation building . He was also concerned about angering the russans and the chinese. He decided to sign on to the plan. He did express concern in a speach before parliament.
Bush was critical of the government ‘s administration of the conflict. The conflict came to an end when serbean forces agreed to pull out. The congress of viena took charge Kosovo.
Pm Clinton aproved of peace keeping forces to stay in the area.bush was highly critical of that move.
In 2000, bush was silent of the isue of cuben refuge elian Gonzales who the Clinton government had returned to be with his farther in cubba. New hampshire senator bob smith led the charge to have him remane in america. Many wanted smith to tone down his rhetoric.
Although bill Clinton was popular,a series of sex scandal dodged his government. Although in most parliamentry system pm can serve as long as they and the voters want. With the exception of p.m roosivelt,no pm had served for more then two mandates. Clinton decided that he would leave office in steptember of 2000.
During a leadership convention,deputy prime minister al gore defeated former senator bill Bradley for the leadership of the grits. On stemtember second ,al gore became prime minister.
There was speculation on when pm gore would call an election. While bush and the tories perpared for an election. They believed that this was there moment.
Bush asked dick chany now ceo of haliburton to return to politics.he decided to seak his old seat in Wyoming. He convinced colin powel to run for parliament from Virginia. He got donald Rumsfeld to return to politics as well.
The economy has been very good under bill Clinton. Clinton came to power due to the recession in 1992. He made the economy the key point of his 96 campaign. There were signs of an economic downturn. Even before the election was called,bush made the economy an isue.liberal suporters acused bush of talking down the economy.
  In November 16th ,prime minister gore asked governor general madaline Albright to disolve the government and call a new election.
Bush tried to form a coilition of voters similar to what ronald reagon had done. They campaigned hevily in the south.
A big hope was florida where his brother was premer. Jeb bush worked hard to gain seats for George.
Coming into the election,the two parties were neck and neck. Social liberterians were more likely to suport the liberals. As the world entered the new milenium there seamed to be an ideological shift to the left. There was also a resurgence of right wing especially in the south.
Bush who profesed to be an evengelical christian tried to apeal to evengelical voters. He also tried to moderate himself .he refered to himself as a compasionate tory.
Bush campaigned on tax reduction. He also wanted to privitize the social insurance program. Gore was critical of this.
The election seamed to be heading in the direction of the tories. The liberals were stil doing well in the cities.
On election night, the consertives won control of the house with a slight mojority. They won 40 percent of the vote.there was acusation of vote fraud in several rydings in florida. It even garnared protest.it would dog bush’s first mandate. 
Pm gore anounced that he would step down as leader of the liberal party. Joe liberman became interem opposition leader.
Bush was now prime minister.bush knew that it would be a long climb. Bush did not get the decisive victory he wanted. He was now in charge. He had a lot to prove.