Tag Archives: 2014 election

Creating alternative 2014 election.

Alternative history also known as speculative fiction is taking actual events and coming up with a different outcome.  A what if syinerio. Popular one are what if america lost the revolutionary war or what if the south won the cival war. Other syinerios are what if the south won the battle of getysburg or what if normandy invasion failed? Elections are interesting esprcialy congressional.  

The 2014 election was a major event in modern u.s history. It was the last election of the berak obama presidentcy. It was the first election sence the 2013 government shitdown and the 2012 sequester.  There was the rise of isis and an ebola oitbreak and fear. The tea party was heading into its third election. The establishment in the republican party had tried to reassert itself and had succeeded.  

In the real world the republicans gained nine seats. There was three more then they needed to take power. The republican did not lose a single seat. They held on to open seats.  The denocrats only got one new member. That of gary peaters who replaced longtime senator Carl levin of Michigan.  Mitch mconel servived a primary and general election challenge.  Pat roberts of kanas who seemed to be vanerable ended up not being in jeopardy.  Republican kept control of Georgia.  

In alternative history election results are tricky. It is irational to flip every results.  It is unlikly for democrat neils mitchel to upset jim risch in idaho. Probably cam cavaso was not going to win in hawaie. It is best to find probible divation in results. 

Some are very easy to alter.  The easiest is in alasca. In the real time line, dan sulivan beat mqrk begitch 48 to 45. It took recounts begore begitch conceded.  It is quite reasonable that behitch could have won. It would mostlikly be close. Without altering other events begitch wining is concevible. A land slide would not unless Obama had been popular,won Alaska in 12 or mit romney won and was unpopular. I perfer to stick closer to the real events. 

Another easy race to alter is north caeolina. Tom tilis beat kay hegen 48 to 47. Her wining by the same margin is quite conceivable.  Tilis was speaker of the sate house. Even though nc was a purple satw that slightly leened gop, the house acted like it was a deep red sate. Tilis won a close primary chalenge by dr. Grieg branon. Tilis was establishment anf disliked by tea party and glen beck who for the most part endorsed brenon. Had brenon won might have changed the race.  I am keeping things bascaly the same for this template. 

Although Arkansas was real close,mark pryor could have beat tom cotten. Cotten was an architect of the 2013 shutdown along witg ted cruz and mike lee. Arkansas is the hone of bill Clinton and once a democratic stronhold.  In 2008 pryor won unopposed even as arkanas was the bigest win for john mccain. 

It is not hard to imagine mark udal holding on to his srat against Gardner.  In my post i put udal against ken buck. In the real time line the gop holding to stop buck from runing recruted gardner. Buck ran for gardners house seat. Buck ran unsuccessfuly against Michael bannet in 2010. 

While mitch mconel loss to allison lundegrin grimes is possible.  While the sate goes republican in presidential elections, democrats do well in sate wide races. Although mconel pulled though well,it could have gone the orther way. 

Kanas is an interesting one.  Orignally it was a theee eay race between roberts fred duvaul and independent grieg orman. Duval droped out. Orman was the opposition candidate. Orman lost. There are a milion places you could take this. I chose to keep the situation the same up until the results. Moatlikly he would side with the democrats. One canot be totaly sure. 

Montana was a bit of a odd series of occurrences. Long time democratic senator conrad burns accrpted a post ad ambassador to china. There was talk of x governor bryan switzer challenging him. Burns took the job probably conident that it would stay in democratic hands. Swizler decided not to run. Lt governor john walsh was appointed to the seat.  Walsh was implicated in a plagerism scandle. Republican congresman Steve danes ran. The denocrats picked amanda carpenter.

Danes won with little dificulty. I decided to keep burns in the race.instead of danes i picked denny rheburg as a kind of sacrificial canidate. There are manny angles you could persue. 

In gerogia saxby chamblis decided not to run. Multiple republicans ran. Into the end david perdue got the nod. He run with 50 percent of the vote avoiding a runoff with michelle nun daughter of x senator sam nun. I had Michele nun wining with filthy percent of the vote. This seams the most likly alternate to the real time line.  

There are mutiple others. Nun and perdue go to runoff.  Nun and another runing.  Her in a runoff with someone else etc. One i find interesting but did not explore was what if the losiana runoff produced a 51-50 split then nun won georgia ruboff. That would create a 50-50 split .joe biden would break the tie and democrats would rule the senate.  

Loisiana is another intetesting race. In the real race, mary landru was forced into a runof with bill casidy. Casidy won. I chose to keep close to the real events. I had landru win the runoff. 

One could go in orther directions. Lundru could have got 51 percent. She could have faced rob mandes. Mandes was tea party guy but had little suport in lousiana or with republican establishment. 

Iowa could have gone difetently. Senator tom harken could have stayed in the race.  Bruce braily could have won. He was viwed as a favorite until high profile gaffs. In a wave election ernst though impressive would have faced a tough road. Ernst might not have gotten the nomination. 

In the south Carolina special election,tim scot easily won. Had jim demint not left the senate there would be no special election. Had the democrats mounted a serious opisition it could have gone differently. In a wave election, if denocrat vincent sheheen had won the governors race, a canidate could have riden on his coatales. I chose to leave this race as it was in the real timeline. 

Texas,i left the same. I could have had steve stockman beating cornine but i did not. I decided not to have the democrats mount a serious chalenge to him. If wendy davis beat abot in the governors race, there could have been a coat tale. 

Tenisee was a ho hum race in the real universe. Lamer alexander easily won a third term. I saw no reason to alter it. 

In va, mark warnet eaked out a win against ed gilaspe. In this tine line i had Warner win another landslide.  I considered having someone other then gilaspe but decided to keep it as is. I could have had gilaspe win but in a dem wave year it made little sense that blue va would go red. 

In west va ,jay Rockefeller decided not to run. He did it almost imidietly after the 2012 election. This gave republican shelly more capitato time to prepare. The dems chose netali tennet. This could have been competitive but was not reallt. 

Given that west va is a denocratic machine sate ,she could have won.i decided to have tennet win. 

Wyoming,  mike enzi beat liz chaney for the nomination then went on to win the election. I could have chaney won. I decided not to. I decided to keep it as is. 

In a paralel sitution,the results would be fliped. In Minnesota having all franken lose to mike mcfeddon in a dem year made no sense. Having tom udal lose im new hanpshire in my universe made little sense. I considered an upset in oregon. Have monica whitby win in oregon. It seemed ilogical for whitby to win. 

I am not totaly happy with my decision to have scot brown beat shaheen. I kind of wanted to have one surprise. Mayby if someone else chalenged shaheen i might be more happy. 

South decota was a fascinating race. It was an open seat. Former governor mike rounds apeared to be a shoe in to replace democrat tim jonson. Then lary presser steped in as an independent.  Rick weylan a throw away canidate got traction. In my template,  rick wrhland pullef off a victory.  I could have had presser win. Presler said he would join the democrats if elected. 

Oklihoma special election i kept the same. Had coburn not decided to quit there would be no race. I decided not to change it. Had dan borren or x gov brad henry ran it might have turned diffferently. That is too speculative for me. 

I realy think Nebraska  could have gone difetently.  In the real time line ben suess got 60 percent or so. If the democrats were having a good year. Nebraska could have been in play. Sues was a problimetic canidate. Sues could have lost to shane osborn. Osborn could have facef domina. I think that is a resonable flip in an alternative time line. 

I believe jef seasons would win in probly other alternative time line. I just dont see him losing. Jim risch is another one i just dont see losing in 2014.  Chris coons,cory booker, ed marky are senators that i just dont see losing. 

Alternative or specutive history is not an exact science. We are speculating.  This is a guess. There is no way to test these theories.  I dont have acess to a timet from sliders. I love alternative history. It is fun to engage in this kind of speculation.  At least i find it fun.