Category Archives: 2014 election

Creating alternative 2014 election.

Alternative history also known as speculative fiction is taking actual events and coming up with a different outcome.  A what if syinerio. Popular one are what if america lost the revolutionary war or what if the south won the cival war. Other syinerios are what if the south won the battle of getysburg or what if normandy invasion failed? Elections are interesting esprcialy congressional.  

The 2014 election was a major event in modern u.s history. It was the last election of the berak obama presidentcy. It was the first election sence the 2013 government shitdown and the 2012 sequester.  There was the rise of isis and an ebola oitbreak and fear. The tea party was heading into its third election. The establishment in the republican party had tried to reassert itself and had succeeded.  

In the real world the republicans gained nine seats. There was three more then they needed to take power. The republican did not lose a single seat. They held on to open seats.  The denocrats only got one new member. That of gary peaters who replaced longtime senator Carl levin of Michigan.  Mitch mconel servived a primary and general election challenge.  Pat roberts of kanas who seemed to be vanerable ended up not being in jeopardy.  Republican kept control of Georgia.  

In alternative history election results are tricky. It is irational to flip every results.  It is unlikly for democrat neils mitchel to upset jim risch in idaho. Probably cam cavaso was not going to win in hawaie. It is best to find probible divation in results. 

Some are very easy to alter.  The easiest is in alasca. In the real time line, dan sulivan beat mqrk begitch 48 to 45. It took recounts begore begitch conceded.  It is quite reasonable that behitch could have won. It would mostlikly be close. Without altering other events begitch wining is concevible. A land slide would not unless Obama had been popular,won Alaska in 12 or mit romney won and was unpopular. I perfer to stick closer to the real events. 

Another easy race to alter is north caeolina. Tom tilis beat kay hegen 48 to 47. Her wining by the same margin is quite conceivable.  Tilis was speaker of the sate house. Even though nc was a purple satw that slightly leened gop, the house acted like it was a deep red sate. Tilis won a close primary chalenge by dr. Grieg branon. Tilis was establishment anf disliked by tea party and glen beck who for the most part endorsed brenon. Had brenon won might have changed the race.  I am keeping things bascaly the same for this template. 

Although Arkansas was real close,mark pryor could have beat tom cotten. Cotten was an architect of the 2013 shutdown along witg ted cruz and mike lee. Arkansas is the hone of bill Clinton and once a democratic stronhold.  In 2008 pryor won unopposed even as arkanas was the bigest win for john mccain. 

It is not hard to imagine mark udal holding on to his srat against Gardner.  In my post i put udal against ken buck. In the real time line the gop holding to stop buck from runing recruted gardner. Buck ran for gardners house seat. Buck ran unsuccessfuly against Michael bannet in 2010. 

While mitch mconel loss to allison lundegrin grimes is possible.  While the sate goes republican in presidential elections, democrats do well in sate wide races. Although mconel pulled though well,it could have gone the orther way. 

Kanas is an interesting one.  Orignally it was a theee eay race between roberts fred duvaul and independent grieg orman. Duval droped out. Orman was the opposition candidate. Orman lost. There are a milion places you could take this. I chose to keep the situation the same up until the results. Moatlikly he would side with the democrats. One canot be totaly sure. 

Montana was a bit of a odd series of occurrences. Long time democratic senator conrad burns accrpted a post ad ambassador to china. There was talk of x governor bryan switzer challenging him. Burns took the job probably conident that it would stay in democratic hands. Swizler decided not to run. Lt governor john walsh was appointed to the seat.  Walsh was implicated in a plagerism scandle. Republican congresman Steve danes ran. The denocrats picked amanda carpenter.

Danes won with little dificulty. I decided to keep burns in the race.instead of danes i picked denny rheburg as a kind of sacrificial canidate. There are manny angles you could persue. 

In gerogia saxby chamblis decided not to run. Multiple republicans ran. Into the end david perdue got the nod. He run with 50 percent of the vote avoiding a runoff with michelle nun daughter of x senator sam nun. I had Michele nun wining with filthy percent of the vote. This seams the most likly alternate to the real time line.  

There are mutiple others. Nun and perdue go to runoff.  Nun and another runing.  Her in a runoff with someone else etc. One i find interesting but did not explore was what if the losiana runoff produced a 51-50 split then nun won georgia ruboff. That would create a 50-50 split .joe biden would break the tie and democrats would rule the senate.  

Loisiana is another intetesting race. In the real race, mary landru was forced into a runof with bill casidy. Casidy won. I chose to keep close to the real events. I had landru win the runoff. 

One could go in orther directions. Lundru could have got 51 percent. She could have faced rob mandes. Mandes was tea party guy but had little suport in lousiana or with republican establishment. 

Iowa could have gone difetently. Senator tom harken could have stayed in the race.  Bruce braily could have won. He was viwed as a favorite until high profile gaffs. In a wave election ernst though impressive would have faced a tough road. Ernst might not have gotten the nomination. 

In the south Carolina special election,tim scot easily won. Had jim demint not left the senate there would be no special election. Had the democrats mounted a serious opisition it could have gone differently. In a wave election, if denocrat vincent sheheen had won the governors race, a canidate could have riden on his coatales. I chose to leave this race as it was in the real timeline. 

Texas,i left the same. I could have had steve stockman beating cornine but i did not. I decided not to have the democrats mount a serious chalenge to him. If wendy davis beat abot in the governors race, there could have been a coat tale. 

Tenisee was a ho hum race in the real universe. Lamer alexander easily won a third term. I saw no reason to alter it. 

In va, mark warnet eaked out a win against ed gilaspe. In this tine line i had Warner win another landslide.  I considered having someone other then gilaspe but decided to keep it as is. I could have had gilaspe win but in a dem wave year it made little sense that blue va would go red. 

In west va ,jay Rockefeller decided not to run. He did it almost imidietly after the 2012 election. This gave republican shelly more capitato time to prepare. The dems chose netali tennet. This could have been competitive but was not reallt. 

Given that west va is a denocratic machine sate ,she could have won.i decided to have tennet win. 

Wyoming,  mike enzi beat liz chaney for the nomination then went on to win the election. I could have chaney won. I decided not to. I decided to keep it as is. 

In a paralel sitution,the results would be fliped. In Minnesota having all franken lose to mike mcfeddon in a dem year made no sense. Having tom udal lose im new hanpshire in my universe made little sense. I considered an upset in oregon. Have monica whitby win in oregon. It seemed ilogical for whitby to win. 

I am not totaly happy with my decision to have scot brown beat shaheen. I kind of wanted to have one surprise. Mayby if someone else chalenged shaheen i might be more happy. 

South decota was a fascinating race. It was an open seat. Former governor mike rounds apeared to be a shoe in to replace democrat tim jonson. Then lary presser steped in as an independent.  Rick weylan a throw away canidate got traction. In my template,  rick wrhland pullef off a victory.  I could have had presser win. Presler said he would join the democrats if elected. 

Oklihoma special election i kept the same. Had coburn not decided to quit there would be no race. I decided not to change it. Had dan borren or x gov brad henry ran it might have turned diffferently. That is too speculative for me. 

I realy think Nebraska  could have gone difetently.  In the real time line ben suess got 60 percent or so. If the democrats were having a good year. Nebraska could have been in play. Sues was a problimetic canidate. Sues could have lost to shane osborn. Osborn could have facef domina. I think that is a resonable flip in an alternative time line. 

I believe jef seasons would win in probly other alternative time line. I just dont see him losing. Jim risch is another one i just dont see losing in 2014.  Chris coons,cory booker, ed marky are senators that i just dont see losing. 

Alternative or specutive history is not an exact science. We are speculating.  This is a guess. There is no way to test these theories.  I dont have acess to a timet from sliders. I love alternative history. It is fun to engage in this kind of speculation.  At least i find it fun. 

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Alternative 2014 midterm

Alaska mark bagitch democrat vrs joe miller republican

 In 2009,democrat bagitch took advantage of scandal that led to the conviction of long time senator ted stevens. Begitch had to stradle the fench between pleasing red sate alaka voters and president Obama. Joe miller a sarah palin aly did not get the full suport of republican establishment in the sate.senator lisa murkulski declined to endorse anyone.  As a result Begitch waa able to keep his seat. 

Winner democrat hold.

Alabama senator jeff seasons wins reelection.  

Republican hold

Arkansas senator mark pryor democrat vrs tom cotten republican

On paper cotten looked like a dream canidate. He was a veterin. He was young.  He was handsome. Arkanas once a democratic stringhold was trending gop.  Cotten was an architect of the shutdown of 2013. Pryor was able to potray him as an obstructionist.  Pryor won.

Winner dem hold

Colorado senator mark udal d vrs ken buck

Republican atempts to recruit congresman corry gardner or any one else led to the nomination of 2010 canidate ken buck.mark udal crushed to a victory.

Dem hold

Delaware 

Chris coons is relected. Coons defeated republican business man kevin wade. 

Georgia republican david perdue v michelle nun

Once a democratic stronghold, the republucan had gotten a foot hold in the sate in first decade of the new cenrury. With the reritenent of republucan senator chamblis the seat was oppen. Michele nun daughter of x senator dam nun jumped in.  Nun who ran as non partison and bi partisen was able to get 52 percent of the vote and avoid a runoff. 

Dem gain.

Hawaie

Bryan shatz the democratic incumbent apointed to replace the late daniel inoye won this special election. He defeated republican cam cavasso. 

Idaho 

Senator jim risch wins reelection. He defeated democrat neils mitchel. 

Ilonois  senator dick durban democrat vrs jim oerweis republican 

Senator durban easily thought off a chalenge by perennial republican candidate.  

Iowa

Congresman bruce braly democrat vrs republican sate senator joni ernst. 

With the help of outgoing senator tom harken, brally won the open seat. This was seen as a defeat for sarah palin who was a big suporter of ernst. 

Kansas 

Pat Roberts republican incumbent vrs grieg orman.

Pat roberts was seaking a foutg term. Roberts was seen as too moderate for the tea party. While the democratic canidate droped out and endorsed orman. While orman did not pledge to caucis with rhe democrats many assumed he would. In kannas wich had not sent a democrat to the senate sence the middle 2oth century,this seemed like a long shot.  With the unpopulerity of governor brownback,and the meurging of moderate republican and te democrats orman won. He anounced that he would suport harty reid and the democrats two days after the election.  

Democrat gain. 

Kyintucky

Senator mitxh mcconel r vrs alisson lindegrun grimes

In a major upset, aliison lundegrin grimes was able to unseat mcconel. Pols showed that she had an egde. She was heavily suported by incumbent governor bashir and democratic establishment in the sate. This guarantied that the republican would not retake the senate. 

Democrat gain. 

Louisiana 

Mary laundru democratic incumbent vrs bill caysidy(r)

Laundru was elected in 1996 in a close race. Again she was forced into a runoff in 02 but won. She won relection without much trouble in 08. She was targarted in 2014 and was believed to be extremly venerable.  She was forced into a runoff but with bo chances of regaing the senate there was little interest. Laundru ended uo wining the runoff. 

Dem hold.  

Maine

Susan coliins(r)vrs democrat shan belows

Activist shana belows hoped to pull off a suprise upset but that did not happen. 

Republican hold. 

Massachusetts 

Senator ed marky wins election to a full term. He defeated republican bryan herr. 

Michigan

 In an open seat congresman garry peaters a demoxratefaces republican terrh lyin land.

Garry peaters won this seat with little trouble. Land had a slight edge at first but with the unpopulerity of republican due to the government shutdown governor snyders polical ptoblems peaters was able to win reelection. 

Dem hold.

Minnesota

Al franken democratix incumdent vrs mike Mcfadden 

Franken a former Saturday night live producer and talk show host won a contested race in 2009. Republicans hoped to oust him. In a dempcratic wave year,it did not happen. 

Dem hold

Mississippi 

Chris mcdaniels (r) vrs travis childers(d)

Mcdaniels defeated senator thad cocren. The race looked competitive but mcdaniels won it easily..

Republican hold 

Montana 

Max baukus (d) vrs denny reburg(r)

Max buckis was relected. While republican hoped to take this seat,buckis was stil popular. He was still reelected. 

Dem hold

Nebrasca 

Ben sasse republican vrs dave domina democrat

In a surprising upset,democratic trial lawer defeated ben sasse. Sase who won the repuclican nomination with outside suport angered thr gop establihment in nebrasca and nationaly. The pols coming in to the election had sasr winning but domina won with 55 percent of the vote. Many in yhe republican establishment breathed a sigh of relief as to not have another ted cruz or mike lee in the senate.

Dem gain.

New hampshire

Jeen shaheen (d) vrs scot brown

In 22009,republican scot brown won a special election in Massachusetts. He lost in 2012 to elizabeth warren. Brown decided to change residentcy to new hampshire and chalenege shaheen. He was able to win a close race mostly on local poltics. 

Republican gain.

New jersy

Cory booker vrs jeff ball

Cory booker won a special election in 2013. He was relected without much trouble. 

Democrat hold.

New mexico tom udal democratic incumbent vrs alen weh 

Tom udal seemed like he might be venerable.  That did not happen.he was able to win relection quite comfortibly. 

Dem hold. 

North Carolina 

Kay hagen democratic imcumbent vrs republican tom tillis

Kay hagen defeated senator Elizabeth dole in 2008.  She rode the obama wave as well as capitize on gafs that dole made. She implied that hagen was athiest. Hagen is an elder at her presbiterian church. She came into 2014 ubpopular. Tillis was speaker of the north Carolina house. The house was known for passing far right bill in a sate that slughtly leen gop but was a purple sate.  Tilis faced a difficult primary.many high profile talk show host and tea party suported his gop rivak grieg branen. Hagen eeked out a victory. It was enough.  

Dem hold. 

Oklahoma 

Due to health concerns ,senator tom coburn decided to resign early folowing a special election. Congresman James lankford a former youth pastor won the seat. 

Gop hold. 

Oregon

Jeff merkly d vrs dr. Monica whitby(r)

Merkly defeated then republican senator gorden smith. The result was close. Defeating merkly in deep blue oregon was a ling schot. Nerosurgen dr. Monica whitby appeared to be someone who could it. As the election became a democraric wave it was just not in the cards. Whitby had an early lead but she never came back. 

Dem hold. 

South Carolina 

In 2012,ed fulmer long time head of the heritage fondation anounced that he was leaving. Jim demint would replace him. He steped down from the senate. Governor haily appointed tim Scot to replace him.scot was the first African American senator from the sate sense reconstruction.  Tim scot was elected without much trouble.

Republican hold.

South decota 

Mike rounds republican vrs democrat rick wehland and independent lary pressor.

Senator tim johnson a democrat decided not to run. Rounds a former governor from a prominent family in the sate seemed to be a shoe in. With the rise of independent pressor. Wehland presented himself as an outsider. He attacked big money in politics. Wehland pols grew. Wehland won a suprise election. 

Dem hold. 

Texas

John cornine survived a primary chalenge. Cornine who had a bit of a climb in 2008.  He was relected this time without much trouble. Cornine curently the republican minority leader will probably seak to become leader but not mojority leader.

Gop hold 

Tenisee

Republican lamer alexander wins reelection.  

Va 

Senator mark warner democrat vrs ed gilespe

It was a lonh schot but gilespe had nothing better to do. Why not be a sacrificial lamb in a sate where republican used to be competitive.  Warner lost some ground but stil won in basically  landslide. 

Dem hold. 
West va

Shelly more capito(r) vrs netali tennet(d)

Jay rockifeller chose not to run for relection.  Shelly npre capito has been gerring up for higher office.she was ahead most of the time.despite the dismal performece by the g.o.p,she was able to win the seat. This was one of the few bright spots. 

Gop gain.

Wyimong

Mike enzi beat liz chaney for the nomination. He was relected with bo dificulty. 

Results 

Democrats did better then expected.  The republican were left in shambles. Mitch mconel was without a seat. Ron jonson of Wisconsin challenged john cornine for leader of the republicans in the senate. Cornine won. Senator ded fisher of nebrasca became number two.